Avoid the Unmanageable, Manage the Unavoidable

NY Times has an excellent debate on whether climate change had a role to play in the recent duststorms in Australia .

On Economics of Growth

"There is room in the world, no doubt, and even in old countries, for a great increase of population, supposing the arts of life to go on improving, and capital to increase. But even if innocuous, I confess I see very little reason for desiring it. The density of population necessary to enable mankind to obtain, in the greatest degree, all the advantages both of cooperation and of social intercourse, has, in all the most populous countries, been attained. A population may be too crowded, though all be amply supplied with food and raiment. It is not good for man to be kept perforce at all times in the presence of his species. A world from which solitude is extirpated, is a very poor ideal. Solitude, in the sense of being often alone, is essential to any depth of meditation or of character; and solitude in the presence of natural beauty and grandeur, is the cradle of thoughts and aspirations which are not only good for the individual, but which society could ill do without. Nor is there much satisfaction in contemplating the world with nothing left to the spontaneous activity of nature; with every rood of land brought into cultivation, which is capable of growing food for human beings; every flowery waste or natural pasture ploughed up, all quadrupeds or birds which are not domesticated for man's use exterminated as his rivals for food, every hedgerow or superfluous tree rooted out, and scarcely a place left where a wild shrub or flower could grow without being eradicated as a weed in the name of improved agriculture. If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger but not a better or a happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will be content to be stationary, long before necessity compels them to it.

It is scarcely necessary to remark that a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the Art of Living, and much more likelihood of its being improved, when minds ceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on. Even the industrial arts might be as earnestly and as successfully cultivated, with this sole difference, that instead of serving no purpose but the increase of wealth, industrial improvements would produce their legitimate effect, that of abridging labour. . . . Only when, in addition to just institutions, the increase of mankind shall be under the deliberate guidance of judicious foresight, can the conquests made from the powers of nature by the intellect and energy of scientific discoverers, become the common property of the species, and the means of improving and elevating the universal lot.""There is room in the world, no doubt, and even in old countries, for a great increase of population, supposing the arts of life to go on improving, and capital to increase. But even if innocuous, I confess I see very little reason for desiring it. The density of population necessary to enable mankind to obtain, in the greatest degree, all the advantages both of cooperation and of social intercourse, has, in all the most populous countries, been attained. A population may be too crowded, though all be amply supplied with food and raiment. It is not good for man to be kept perforce at all times in the presence of his species. A world from which solitude is extirpated, is a very poor ideal. Solitude, in the sense of being often alone, is essential to any depth of meditation or of character; and solitude in the presence of natural beauty and grandeur, is the cradle of thoughts and aspirations which are not only good for the individual, but which society could ill do without. Nor is there much satisfaction in contemplating the world with nothing left to the spontaneous activity of nature; with every rood of land brought into cultivation, which is capable of growing food for human beings; every flowery waste or natural pasture ploughed up, all quadrupeds or birds which are not domesticated for man's use exterminated as his rivals for food, every hedgerow or superfluous tree rooted out, and scarcely a place left where a wild shrub or flower could grow without being eradicated as a weed in the name of improved agriculture. If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger but not a better or a happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will be content to be stationary, long before necessity compels them to it.

It is scarcely necessary to remark that a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the Art of Living, and much more likelihood of its being improved, when minds ceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on. Even the industrial arts might be as earnestly and as successfully cultivated, with this sole difference, that instead of serving no purpose but the increase of wealth, industrial improvements would produce their legitimate effect, that of abridging labour. . . . Only when, in addition to just institutions, the increase of mankind shall be under the deliberate guidance of judicious foresight, can the conquests made from the powers of nature by the intellect and energy of scientific discoverers, become the common property of the species, and the means of improving and elevating the universal lot."

John Stuart Mill

Source :NYTimes :Dot Earth

On Climate Change

One of the highlights of Clinton's visit to India was India's stern no to any legally binding emission cuts. India's position is that India's per capita emissions are among the lowest among the world, and even with current growth rate of GDP, they are not going to rise significantly. If millions of Indians have to be lifted out of poverty India needs high GDP growth rate and any restrictions placed on India as a result of climate change pacts or protocols is only going to hinder India's growth. Consequently the poor are going to suffer. Secondly it is the developed countries who are solely responsible for this mess. So they have to do be the main agent of change.

Some experts have suggested that instead of using per capita emissions as a parameter, emissions per GDP (or GDP per emission) could be considered. This could be the right strategy which should be accepted by the developing as well as developed countries. Whatever nations or people say the fact remains that climate change is a real threat and something needs to be done about it sooner. The ill effects of climate change are going to be felt across the world and they are not limited to one region or country.

Carbon emissions per GDP is supposed to measure the efficiency of an economy, where as carbon emissions per capita is more a measure of industrialization than anything else. In modern economy energy use is high. Virtually all the economic activities depend on some kind of energy source , whether electrical or mechanical. Most of this energy is derived from fossil fuels which are the chief emitter of carbon. Thus emissions per GDP measure the kind of technology being used to fuel the economy. For eg, by having tougher emission standards, carbon emissions by vehicles can be controlled. Similarly for coal fired power plants (coal is less cleaner fuel than petrol when it comes to carbon emissions), by using effcient technology and techniques such as carbon capturing we can reduce the carbon emissions. Adoption of new and efficient technology will also fuel GDP growth. Moving towards renewable sources like solar and wind will create new jobs and help in cleaner GDP growth.

Let us compare the ratio of GDP to CO2 emissions for some countries.(source: wikipedia)

Sweden 6.591

France 5.373

Italy 3.842

UK 3.670

Germany 3.390

US 1.936

Kuwait 0.596

India 0.497

China 0.450

Iran 0.372

The higher the ratio the better it is. The value for UK is almost double that of US. So though both the countries have developed economies, UK's economy is much more carbon efficient than US. This is generally true for all major European economies. Most of the developing countries fare poorly on this front. India is slightly better than China. As can be seen developed countries in general are much better placed in the list. Also the gulf countries where petroleum is available in plenty are performing pretty poorly.

I am not sure how the carbon emissions are calculated. I assume that these emissions are calulated on the basis of fossil fuels burnt plus the carbon emissions by the industries which are of non fossil fuel origin such as by cement industry. Livestock are also major cause of carbon emissions. Cows emit methane which is 20 times as potent than CO2 in absorbing heat.

So it can be clearly seen that there is large variation of emissions per capita across countries. It can be clearly established that developing countries lag far behind the developed ones. The clean technology transfer from developed to developing countries can mitiagate this difference. This is something the diplomats should look at. There is large scope of cooperation between the countries on clean energy front. The other trend is the variation among the developed countries. This may be because that European countries have done much more than US on this front. For eg petrol is cheaper in US than in Europe. This is reflected in the petroleum consumption per capita. US consumes around 24.8 thousand barrels(bbl) per year per capita whereas the same for UK is 10.9 and France is 11.9.Bigger cars are more popular in US than in Europe. This is also a lifestyle thing. One of the reasons for bankruptcy of US carmakers was the increasing market share of Japanese car manufactureres like Toyota and Honda whose small cars are becoming more popular than SUV's like Hummer. Another example is of trains. High speed trains are very popular in Europe for long distance travel. On the other hand people in US rely mainly on airways for the same. Energywise railways are more efficient than the airways.

One more important factor is the role that forests play in fighting climate change. The role played by forests in maintainig the ecological balance of the planet is well established. By absorbing carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen they help in maintaing the balance of gases in air. So if we have to fight climate change effectively the treaties related to climate change should give adequate incentives to preserve forests. The forests world over are facing the wrath of increasing population. A case in point is that of Brazil. The large Amazon forests of Brazil are being cut to make way for farms. In recent years Brazil has become a large exporter of foodgrains. This has brought prosperity to many Brazilians. But it has come at a heavy cost. Each year large tracts of Amazon forests are being cleared to make way for farms. Any efforts to stop deforestation brings opposition from local people and govt.

To fight climate change the effort has to be at various levels. The individual, the communities, the nations and the international community as a whole has to work to reduce global warming. The govts. role is to facilitate the adoption of environmental friendly technology by the industry and the communities by providing incentives. Govt. can directly act in areas like transportation where there is a huge scope of improvement. Currently in countries like India, public transport in cities is not very popular. Govt. should work to make it the mode of choice.

There are various mechanisms being proposed to fix the liabilty for climate change and to promote clean energy. Cap and trade, and carbon tax are the two main mechanisms. For these mechanisms to work , there has to be a consensus across nations. Also the nations have to agree on setting tough targets. Tokenism won't help anybody. There are sure to be disagreements. But we need the right approach and consensus to tackle this issue.

Every challenge provides new opporunities. The challenge of climate change has provided us as individuals and nations a chance to make earth a sustainable place for all of us. It is now the time for all of us to seize the opportunity and make a difference.

Fighting an Alien War

To begin with a question from Indian history.
As part of their job who were the first Indians sent by their organisation to go to Europe to do their job onsite in large numbers ?
No, it weren't the software engineers. Much before the software boom happened, there was a large contingent of Indians sent to Europe. The organisation was the Indian Army and the work assigned was to fight in the World War 1 including the Western Front which was the most important theater of the war.
Well the working conditions exactly were not as good as one would like. Official figures of Indian soldiers death in WW1 were 64,449. More Indians volunteered to fight for British than the sum total from all the rest of Britain's colonies and dominions.

So what was the motivation for Indians to join the Army and fight for cause which was alien. It could not be patriotism. The soldiers were fighting an alien war. Well it could be the same which provokes the s/w professionals to seek opportunities outside India ie money. Though for the soldiers working conditions were not good and salary for infantrymen was a meager Rs 11 ,but it could be a incentive enough for poor and may be promotion could bring a decent increment. For some it was just a professional duty. WW1 was not the first war in which Indian Army fought for the British. But it was the first war the Indian soldiers served so far from India and in different climatic conditions (climate was much colder than in India).
About WW 1 it is said that it was a war fought 20th century weapons and 19th century strategies resulting in large number of casualties. For most Indian soldiers it was the first time they were participating in a modern war. For some it came as a shock. The soldiers in Western front spent a considerable time in trenches where life was very difficult. Soldiers in trenches not only died of enemy bullets but also of disease. It would have been more difficult for Indian soldiers who were not acclimiatised to cold weather to serve in trenches. As a result two Indian divisions were withdrawn form the Western front in Dec 1915 and sent to Mesopotamia (Iraq) to fight the Ottomon empire (which later on Muslim soldiers of Indian Army resented and some of them mutined. Well religion has always been a strong factor for Indians.) The pschycological effects of fighting in war lasted even years after the war ended . Many soldiers suffered form shell shock. Indian soldiers had the added stress of living so far away form home at a time when the only means of communication with home was through letters. Consequently many suffered from depression and low morale. The war lasted 4 years which was considerable long time to be away from home.

Even conditions in Mesopotamia were not much better. According to an entry in Wikipedia

"Some 11,800 British Empire soldiers, most of them Indians, became prisoners after the Siege of Kut, in Mesopotamia, in April 1916; 4,250 died in captivity. Although many were in very bad condition when captured, Ottoman officers forced them to march 1,100 kilometres (684 mi) to Anatolia. A survivor said: "we were driven along like beasts, to drop out was to die." The survivors were then forced to build a railway through the Taurus Mountains."

Muslim soldiers who refused to fight Turks were court martialled and were were imprisoned.

Similar to Indian National Army later on, some Indian revolutionaries tried to organise a force from Indian troops to fight British in India.

After the war British built the India Gate to commemmorate the soldiers who died fighting for British. In mainstream Indian history the Indian contribution to the British war effort for the 2 world wars is largely ignored.

A Tale of Two Movies

All Quiet on Western Front is a anti-War movie made in 1930 about the German participation in WW1 based on the novel of the same name written by by Erich Maria Remarque, a German veteran of the war.
The Great Dictator is a 1940 Charlie Chaplin movie which satirises Nazism and Hitler.
One significant thing about the movies is the years in which they were released. Since the end of WW2 a lot of great movies have been made about the subject of the two great wars and the intermediate period ,but these two movies stand out, for these were made around the time when Hitler was not part of history but making history.
Therefore not surprisingly The Great Dictator was banned in many parts of Europe. Initially even Britain decided to ban the movie(before it was released) but reversed it's stand later on. Similarly All Quiet on Western Front was banned in Nazi Germany and many other parts of Europe including France.
When Charlie Chaplin decided to make movie in 1937 , it was a courageous decision back then. The WW2 had not started and the extents of horrors of Nazi Germany were still not known and Europe was following a policy of appeasement towards Germany. It would have been a bold political statement against a powerful nation. In the end of the movie Charlie Chaplin's character makes a speech for democracy and peace which is considered an out-of-characterpersonal plea from Chaplin. By the the time movie was released the war had begin but US was still officially neutral. The movie was well received in America and used for propaganda by Britain.

There is a piece of dialogue in the movie AQOTWF which goes as follows
"Tjaden: Well, how do they start a war?
Soldier #1: Well, one country offends another.
Tjaden: How could one country offend another? You mean there's a mountain over in Germany gets mad at a field over in France?
Soldier #1: Well, stupid. One people offends another.
Tjaden: Oh, that's it. I shouldn't be here at all. I don't feel offended.
Katczinsky: It don't apply to tramps like you......"

Here the soldiers are discussing the futility of war. It is they who are suffering to satisfy the pride of their rulers. This movie questioned the idea of nationalism as understood at that time. The idea of nationalism was at its peak at that time in Europe, when countries were fighting over colonies. The European nations were in constant conflict with each other unlike the Europe of today. The world was yet to see another bloody war. It was perhaps the first great movie in the War Genre and made a strong political statement. The movie portrayed the suffering of soldiers in the trench warfare and how young men without much training and understanding of the ground realities were enlisted in the army in the guise of nationalism.
These two movies have special place in the history of cinema for they were made when history was being made.

A test , a bailout and more

A test match has begin between India and England even though England team was reluctant to tour India after the Mumbai terror strikes. This probably is due to the clout that BCCI exercises in the world of Cricket has in spite of what the English team says.
In other news The US House of Rep has agreed for a bailout of US $15 billion for the US auto industry .There is a article by Thomas Friedman titled 'While Detroit Slept' . Friedman has been critical of Detroit auto giants. The US auto industry still relies on gas guzzling large cars whereas the the rest of the auto world is moving towards small cars and developing renewable and more environmental friendly versions of transport.
In his new book Hot, Flat and Crowded, Friedman has argued that America's dependence on petrol not only harms the environment but also strengths the hands of dictatorial governments in the petroleum rich nations. May be here there are lessons for Indian auto industry too.
There is a article in NY Times on two new books on nuclear weapons proliferation . According to them no country other then US has developed Nuclear wapons on its own. Spies have played their part in transferring the technology. as the article says "All paths stem from the United States, directly or indirectly". China and France have actually helped five other other nations to develop nuclear weapons. It is actually not easy to develop the nuclear weapons . Here is an excerpt from the article.
"The book, in a main disclosure, discusses how China in 1982 made a policy decision to flood the developing world with atomic know-how. Its identified clients include Algeria, Pakistan and North Korea.
Alarmingly, the authors say one of China’s bombs was created as an “export design” that nearly “anybody could build.” The blueprint for the simple plan has traveled from Pakistan to Libya and, the authors say, Iran. That path is widely assumed among intelligence officials, but Tehran has repeatedly denied the charge."
Interestingly there is no mention of India's nuclear weapons program in the article.

In Chorus

For me one of the most beautiful sounds one can hear is the chirping of hundreds of birds simultaneously as if they are singing in chorus. It's fun to watch them fly forming various patterns in the air . At my paternal grandfathers place there is a temple just next to house. There is a large tree in the temple. The tree used to become the abode of hundreds of house sparrows in the mornings (just about sunrise) and in the evenings(at sunset).At that time the whole atmosphere resonated with their calls.
And if somebody hurled a stone at the tree or if something made a loud noise ,there chirping would become loud for a moment and in a flash all the sparrows would leave the tree and fly away .
In my maternal grandfather the scene was no different. When my grandfather used to eat he would sit cross legged on the open porch (The old houses usually have a open verandah or a porch which served multiple purposes). He would take a roti ,break it into pieces and throw around. The sparrows would gather around him and enjoy the feast.The sparrows had free access to the house. They would sometimes enter the room in search of food. They were part of the surroundings and member of the house.

Living in Bangalore for the last few years , it is not common to find birds flying around. And it is still rare to find the small house sparrows. It's only recently that I have started the presence of birds which seemed so ubiquitous in my childhood.
The little sounds and sights of nature have their own joy and beauty and it's pleasure to observe them. It may be a strange comparison to make but nowadays I see more kinds of mobile phones in a day then the birds and listen to more ringtones then I do to birds.
The world around me has changed ...